English: Shows in graphic form the projected increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels in five of the emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), compared to the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) actual observational CO₂ emissions data from fossil fuel consumption.

The graph shows five of the illustrative "marker" scenarios from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The SRES report contains a total of 40 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Between the years 2000-2009, growth in CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning was, on average, 3% per year, which exceeds the growth estimated by 35 of the 40 SRES scenarios (34 if the trend is computed with end points instead of a linear fit) (Le Quéré et al., 2010).

Data sources:

Data from IPCC emissions scenarios at google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CC4QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fipccreports%2Fsres%2Femission%2Fdata%2Fallscen.xls&rct=j&q=ipcc%20sres%20CO2%20emissions%20excel&ei=3driTeSRIYjXiAKUupC8Bg&usg=AFQjCNH0tbCc6eAG-9hIYHsIrCmk88UEvg&sig2=phb20XH_kZxuQ_AlT8wIbA&cad=rja%20 ; Data spreadsheet included with International Energy Agency's "CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2011 - Highlights"; and Supplemental 2010 IEA data; and Supplemental 2011 IEA data

References:

• Le Quéré, C., et al. (2010-06-14) Recent trends in CO₂ emissions^[1], RealClimate