"استصواب رائے برائے پاکستانی عام انتخابات، 2018ء" کے نسخوں کے درمیان فرق

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بین السطور

نسخہ بمطابق 10:00، 26 جولائی 2018ء

پاکستان میں عام انتخابات 25 جولائی 2018ء کو ہوئے۔ پچھلے عام انتخابات کے بعد کچھ رائے شماری کنندگان نے قومی و صوبائی سطح پر عوام کی رائے لی ہے۔

گرافیائی خلاصے

مختلف رنگین سطور سے سیاسی جماعتوں کو دکھایا گیا ہے اور کس جماعت کی قوم اسمبلی کے لیے قومی سطح پر کتنی ووٹنگ مقبولیت ہے، ان کو تین نکتوں سے دیکھا جا سکتا ہے۔ جماعتیں جن کے حق میں 10% سے کم رائے ملی ان کو نہیں دکھایا گیا ہے۔
  پاکستان مسلم لیگ (ن)

  پاکستان تحریک انصاف

  پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی

قومی سطح پر جماعتوں کی مقبولیت

ذیل میں 2013ء کے بعد عوام کی رائے ہے:

Date	Pollster	Publisher	Sample	PML-N	PTI	PPP	MQM-P	MMA*	ANP	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster	Publisher	Sample								Lead
25 July 2018	Election 2018	ECP	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12 Jul 2018	SDPI^[1]	Herald	6,004	25%	29%	20%	—	3%	1%	20%	4%
04 Jul 2018	IPOR^[2]	GSP	3,735	32%	29%	13%	2%	3%	1%	20%	3%
06 Jun 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[3]	Geo/Jang	3,000	26%	25%	16%	—	2%	1%	30%	1%
28 May 2018	Pulse Consultant^[3]	Geo/Jang	3,163	27%	30%	17%	1%	4%	1%	20%	3%
May 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[4]	Self	3,000	38%	25%	15%	22%				13%
Mar 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[5]	WSJ	2,000	36%	24%	17%	23%				12%
01 Nov 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[6]	Geo/Jang	3,000	34%	26%	15%	2%	2%	2%	19%	8%
25 Oct 2017	Pulse Consultant^[6]	Geo/Jang	3,243	36%	23%	15%	2%	1%	1%	22%	13%
24 Oct 2017	IPOR^[7]^[8]	GSP	4,540	38%	27%	17%	3%	1%	1%	14%	11%
24 Apr 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[9]	Self	1,400	36%	25%	16%	2%	3%	2%	16%	11%
24 Apr 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[9]		1,400	38%	22%	17%	2%	2%	2%	14%	16%
27 Aug 2015	SDPI^[10]^[11]		3,014	27%	33%	14%	1%	2%	1%	20%	6%
17 Jul 2014	SDPI^[12]	Herald	1,354	17%	33%	19%	5%	3%	3%	18%	14%
11 May 2013	Election 2013^[13]	ECP	45,388,404	32.77%	16.92%	15.23%	5.41%	3.22%	1.00%	25.57%	15.85%

*Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal is an alliance of Islamist political parties, formed in 2002 and dissolved after the 2008 elections. The restoration of this alliance occurred in December 2017. Polls conducted before the restoration show the sum for Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), the major political party in this alliance.

Province-wide voting intention

Voting intention polls conducted for each of the provinces. If a party has N/A listed in the poll, this indicates it is in the 'Others' section of the poll. If a certain poll result is bolded, this indicates that the option has achieved over 50% of the vote.

Punjab

Date	Pollster	Legislature type	PML (N)	PTI	PPP	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster	Legislature type					Lead
12 Jul 2018	SDPI^[1]	unspecified	40%	33%	7%	20%	7%
04 Jul 2018	IPOR^[2]	National	50%	31%	5%	14%	19%
06 Jun 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[3]	unspecified	40%	26%	6%	28%	14%
02 Jun 2018	IPOR^[14]	unspecified	51%	30%	5%	14%	21%
28 May 2018	Pulse Consultant^[3]	unspecified	43%	34%	5%	18%	9%
01 Nov 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[6]	unspecified	50%	31%	5%	14%	19%
25 Oct 2017	Pulse Consultant^[6]	unspecified	55%	20%	7%	18%	35%
24 Oct 2017	IPOR^[8]	National	58%	23%	6%	13%	35%
27 Aug 2015	SDPI^[10]^[11]	National	38%	35%	7%	20%	3%
17 Jul 2014	SDPI^[12]	Provincial	25%	43%	11%	21%	18%
11 May 2013	Election 2013^[13]	Provincial	40.8%	17.8%	8.8%	32.6%	23.0%

South Punjab

Districts mainly include Multan, Lodhran, MuzzafarGarh, DG khan, Rajanpur, Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan.

Date	Pollster	PML (N)	PTI	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster				Lead
2 Jun 2018	IPOR^[14]	49%	29%	8%	20%

Islamabad and North Punjab

Districts mainly include Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Attock and Jehlum.

Date	Pollster	PML (N)	PTI	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster				Lead
2 Jun 2018	IPOR^[14]	42%	31%	5%	11%

Central Punjab

Districts mainly include Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Gujrat, Narowal, Hafizabad, Mandi Bahudin, Okara, Kasur, Sheikupura, Nankana sahib, Vehari, Pak pattan Sahiwal and Khanewal.

Date	Pollster	PML (N)	PTI	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster				Lead
2 Jun 2018	IPOR^[14]	55%	30%	3%	25%

Western Punjab

District mainly include Faisalabad, Jhang, Chaniot, Tobatek singh, Sargodha, Mianwali, Bhakkar, Layyah and Khushab.

Date	Pollster	PML (N)	PTI	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster				Lead
2 Jun 2018	IPOR^[14]	52%	31%	5%	21%

سندھ

Date	Pollster	Legislature type	PPP	MQM (P)	PML (F)	PTI	PML (N)	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster	Legislature type							Lead
12 Jul 2018	SDPI^[1]	unspecified	54%	2%	10%	14%	4%	16%	40%
04 Jul 2018	IPOR^[2]	National	35%	7%	5%	18%	10%	25%	17%
06 Jun 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[3]	unspecified	44%	—		9%	4%	43%	35%
28 May 2018	Pulse Consultant^[3]	unspecified	45%	5%	—	11%	4%	35%	34%
01 Nov 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[6]	unspecified	44%	10%	—		11%	35%	33%
25 Oct 2017	Pulse Consultant^[6]	unspecified	46%	7%	—	10%	—	37%	36%
24 Oct 2017	IPOR^[8]	National	52%	11%	2%	14%	12%	7%	38%
27 Aug 2015	SDPI^[10]^[11]	National	41%	5%	—	21%	13%	20%	20%
17 July 2014	SDPI^[12]	Provincial	50%	20%	5%	25%			30%
11 May 2013	Election 2013^[13]	Provincial	32.6%	25.5%	11.6%	6.2%	6.0%	18.1%	7.1%

خیبر پختونخوا

Date	Pollster	Legislature type	PTI	PML (N)	JUI (F)	ANP	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster	Legislature type						Lead
12 Jul 2018	SDPI^[1]	unspecified	43%	10%	11%	6%	30%	31%
04 Jul 2018	IPOR^[2]	National	45%	12%	6%	8%	29%	33%
06 Jun 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[3]	unspecified	57%	9%	6%	6%	22%	48%
28 May 2018	Pulse Consultant^[3]	unspecified	57%	10%	9%	7%	17%	47%
01 Nov 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[6]	unspecified	47%	10%	43%			37%
25 Oct 2017	Pulse Consultant^[6]	unspecified	53%	13%	34%			40%
24 Oct 2017	IPOR^[8]	National	62%	10%	1%	5%	22%	52%
27 Aug 2015	SDPI^[10]^[11]	National	50%	15%	7%	7%	21%	35%
17 Jul 2014	SDPI^[12]	Provincial	40%	—	13%	12%	35%	27%
11 May 2013	Election 2013^[13]	Provincial	19.3%	15.9%	13.6%	10.3%	40.9%	3.4%

Balochistan

Date	Pollster	Legislature type	JUI (F)	PMAP	PML (N)	BNP	NP	PPP	ANP	PTI	Others	BAP	Lead
Date	Pollster	Legislature type											Lead
12 Jul 2018	SDPI^[1]	unspecified	8%	4%	11%	6%	—	15%	—	11%	45%		4%
04 Jul 2018	IPOR^[2]	National	12%	10%	5%	5%	5%	16%	4%	8%	35%	7%	4%
06 Jun 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[3]	unspecified	23%	9%	2%	14%	11%	20%	4%	5%	12%		3%
28 May 2018	Pulse Consultant^[3]	unspecified	11%	4%	2%	6%	5%	36%	3%	12%	14%	7%	24%
01 Nov 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[6]	unspecified	22%	18%	16%	13%	5%	7%	4%	5%	10%	—	4%
25 Oct 2017	Pulse Consultant^[6]	unspecified	5%	0%	39%	8%	0%	5%	7%	21%	15%		18%
24 Oct 2017	IPOR^[8]	National	—	6%	15%	8%	1%	9%	2%	33%	26%		18%
27 Aug 2015	SDPI^[10]^[11]	National	18%	—	5%	—		10%	12%	4%	51%		6%
17 July 2014	SDPI^[12]	Provincial	—			23%	22%	—		14%	41%		1%
11 May 2013	Election 2013^[13]	Provincial	15.8%	12.8%	10.3%	6.2%	5.8%	4.0%	2.4%	1.8%	40.9%		3.0%

Constituency-wide voting intention

Colour key

† Exit Poll

‡ By election result

حلقہ این اے۔4

Date	Pollster	Sample	PTI	PML (N)	JI	ANP	PPP	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster	Sample							Lead
26 Oct 2017‡	By-election 2017	131,298	34.8%	18.9%	5.4%	18.9%	10.0%	12.1%	15.9%
26 Oct 2017†	CPDI^[15]	1,742	43%	16%	8%	20%	9%	6%	23%
19 Oct 2017	IPOR^[16]	1,313	41%	18%	4%	9%	9%	19%	25%
11 May 2013	Election 2013^[13]	138,555	39.8%	14.7%	11.9%	11.4%	8.7%	13.5%	25.1%

حلقہ این اے۔53

Date	Pollster	Sample	PTI	PML (N)	PPP	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster	Sample					Lead
28 Feb 2018	IPOR^[17]	598	37%	41%	2%	20%	4%
11 May 2013	Election 2013^[13]	236,624	46.6%	43.2%	6.3%	3.9%	3.4%

حلقہ این اے۔120

Date	Pollster	Sample	PML (N)	PTI	Others	Lead
Date	Pollster	Sample				Lead
17 September 2017‡	By-election 2017	125,129	49.4%	37.6%	13.0%	11.8%
17 September 2017†	CPDI^[18]	1,433	46%	40%	14%	6%
12 September 2017	Pulse Consultant^[19]	1,520	62%	23%	15%	39%
10 September 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[20]	1,500	53%	29%	18%	24%
06 September 2017	IPOR^[21]	2,198	49%	34%	17%	15%
11 May 2013	Election 2013^[13]	153,328	60.5%	34.6%	4.9%	25.9%

Polling on Politicians

Disqualification/Resignation of نواز شریف

Date	Pollster	Sample	Agree (Right)	Disagree (Wrong)	Don’t Know	Lead
Date	Pollster	Sample				Lead
05 April 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[22]	1,586	53%	40%	7%	13%
01 Nov 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[6]	3,000	55%	33%	11%	22%
01 Nov 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[6]	3,000	54%	31%	15%	23%
25 Oct 2017	Pulse Consultant^[6]	3,243	48%	31%	21%	17%
25 Oct 2017	Pulse Consultant^[6]	3,243	47%	28%	25%	19%
24 Oct 2017	GSP^[8]	4,540	65%	33%	2%	32%
24 Oct 2017	GSP^[8]	4,540	69%	28%	3%	39%
28 July 2017	Prime Minister نواز شریف is disqualified from office by the Supreme Court

نواز شریف vs عمران خان

Date	Pollster	نواز شریف	عمران خان	Don’t Know	Lead
Date	Pollster				Lead
May 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[4]	50%	45%	5%	5%
March 2018	Gallup Pakistan^[5]	49%	46%	5%	3%
(undefined) 2017	Gallup Pakistan^[5]	51%	39%	10%	12%
(undefined) 2016	Gallup Pakistan^[5]	57%	37%	6%	20%
(undefined) 2015	Gallup Pakistan^[5]	59%	35%	6%	24%

حوالہ جات

^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ "Survey shows elections too close to call"
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ "National Survey of Current Political Survey in Pakistan" (PDF)
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ ^ث ^ج ^چ ^ح ^خ "Elections Exclusive: 3 poll results in! Who will you vote for Pakistan?"۔ geo.tv
^ ^ا ^ب "Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, Chairman Gallup Pakistan talks about the changing trends in public opinion and motivations of the voters with respect to the upcoming Election on Jirga with SaleemKhanSafi on Geo News"۔ Gallup Pakistan۔ 21 May 2018
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ Saeed Shah (25 April 2018)۔ "Trial of Ex-Leader Rattles Pakistan's Democracy"۔ [www.wsj.com]
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ ^ث ^ج ^چ ^ح ^خ ^د ^ڈ Manzar Elahi، Sajjad Haider (24 November 2017)۔ "PML-N remains most popular party, Nawaz most favourite leader: survey"۔ جیو ٹی وی
↑ "Shehbaz favoured by Pakistan's majority to become premier: GSP survey"۔ دنیا نیوز۔ 28 October 2017
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ ^ث "National Public Opinion Survey"۔ Global Strategic Partners۔ 24 October 2017
↑ "Gallup Public Pulse on Panama Leaks Verdict – 24 Hours after the Announcement"۔ Gallup Pakistan۔ 24 April 2017
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ Abid Q Suleri (2015)۔ "Political Barometer, 2015" (PDF)۔ Sustainable Development Policy Institute
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ Ismail Sheikh (28 October 2015)۔ "PTI more popular than PML-N: survey"۔ دی ایکسپریس ٹریبیون۔ اخذ شدہ بتاریخ 29 مارچ 2018
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ "State of the nation: public opinion of the government's first year in power"۔ Dawn۔ اخذ شدہ بتاریخ 29 مارچ 2018
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ ^ث ^ج ^چ "Party wise total vote bank" (PDF)۔ Government of Pakistan۔ 27 May 2013۔ 08 اکتوبر 2017 میں اصل (PDF) سے آرکائیو شدہ
^ ^ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ "A Quantative Study Report on the Political Continuum of Punjab" (PDF)۔ ipor.com.pk
↑ "Exit Polls in NA-4 (Peshawar – IV) By-Elections Give Clear Lead to PTI"۔ Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives۔ 26 October 2017
↑ "NA-04 Peshawar" (PDF)۔ Institute for Public Opinion Research۔ 25 October 2017
↑ "A Quantitative Study Report on the Political Continuum of NA-53" (PDF)۔ Institute for Public Opinion Research۔ 1 March 2018
↑ "Exit Polls in NA 120 Bye-Elections Show Slender Lead by PMLN NA-120 (Lahore III)"۔ Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives۔ 17 September 2017
↑ "Survey shows easy sailing for PML-N in NA-120 by-polls"۔ The News PK۔ 12 September 2017
↑ "NA-120 Pre-election Survey by Gallup Pakistan" (PDF)۔ Gallup Pakistan۔ 17 September 2017
↑ "71pc won't change their voting behaviour in NA-120: survey"۔ The News PK۔ 6 September 2017
↑ "Public Opinion on Supreme Court Ruling in Elections Reforms Case" (PDF)۔ 5 April 2018

[Surveyclose-1] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ "Survey shows elections too close to call"

[Gspnat2-2] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ "National Survey of Current Political Survey in Pakistan" (PDF)

[geojang2-3] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ ^ث ^ج ^چ ^ح ^خ "Elections Exclusive: 3 poll results in! Who will you vote for Pakistan?"۔ geo.tv

[pmln38-4] ا ^ب "Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, Chairman Gallup Pakistan talks about the changing trends in public opinion and motivations of the voters with respect to the upcoming Election on Jirga with SaleemKhanSafi on Geo News"۔ Gallup Pakistan۔ 21 May 2018

[wsj-5] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ Saeed Shah (25 April 2018)۔ "Trial of Ex-Leader Rattles Pakistan's Democracy"۔ [www.wsj.com]

[geotv169121-6] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ ^ث ^ج ^چ ^ح ^خ ^د ^ڈ Manzar Elahi، Sajjad Haider (24 November 2017)۔ "PML-N remains most popular party, Nawaz most favourite leader: survey"۔ جیو ٹی وی

[7] "Shehbaz favoured by Pakistan's majority to become premier: GSP survey"۔ دنیا نیوز۔ 28 October 2017

[gspnat-8] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ ^ث "National Public Opinion Survey"۔ Global Strategic Partners۔ 24 October 2017

[9] "Gallup Public Pulse on Panama Leaks Verdict – 24 Hours after the Announcement"۔ Gallup Pakistan۔ 24 April 2017

[barometer-10] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ Abid Q Suleri (2015)۔ "Political Barometer, 2015" (PDF)۔ Sustainable Development Policy Institute

[tribune-11] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ Ismail Sheikh (28 October 2015)۔ "PTI more popular than PML-N: survey"۔ دی ایکسپریس ٹریبیون۔ اخذ شدہ بتاریخ 29 مارچ 2018

[dawn29Mar-12] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ "State of the nation: public opinion of the government's first year in power"۔ Dawn۔ اخذ شدہ بتاریخ 29 مارچ 2018

[election2013-13] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ ^ث ^ج ^چ "Party wise total vote bank" (PDF)۔ Government of Pakistan۔ 27 May 2013۔ 08 اکتوبر 2017 میں اصل (PDF) سے آرکائیو شدہ

[IporPunjab-14] ا ^ب ^پ ^ت ^ٹ "A Quantative Study Report on the Political Continuum of Punjab" (PDF)۔ ipor.com.pk

[15] "Exit Polls in NA-4 (Peshawar – IV) By-Elections Give Clear Lead to PTI"۔ Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives۔ 26 October 2017

[16] "NA-04 Peshawar" (PDF)۔ Institute for Public Opinion Research۔ 25 October 2017

[17] "A Quantitative Study Report on the Political Continuum of NA-53" (PDF)۔ Institute for Public Opinion Research۔ 1 March 2018

[18] "Exit Polls in NA 120 Bye-Elections Show Slender Lead by PMLN NA-120 (Lahore III)"۔ Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives۔ 17 September 2017

[19] "Survey shows easy sailing for PML-N in NA-120 by-polls"۔ The News PK۔ 12 September 2017

[20] "NA-120 Pre-election Survey by Gallup Pakistan" (PDF)۔ Gallup Pakistan۔ 17 September 2017

[21] "71pc won't change their voting behaviour in NA-120: survey"۔ The News PK۔ 6 September 2017

[22] "Public Opinion on Supreme Court Ruling in Elections Reforms Case" (PDF)۔ 5 April 2018

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